Thursday, 20 February 2014
A used car dealer has just purchased a year-old sports car for $10,000.
The dealer can wholesale the car now for $10,500, but the wholesale
value of the car will
decline $200 per month as the car gets older. After
quite a bit of experience with similar cars, the dealer believes that
advertising the car for $12,000 will
result in a sale at a price of $11,500, if the right
buyer comes along. The probability that the right buyer will come along
in the first month is 0.4; if it is
not sold then, the probability is 0.3 for the second
month. If it is not sold in the second month, the probability the right
buyer will come along in the third
month is 0.2. If it is not sold in the third month, the
probability the right buyer will come along in the fourth month is 0.1.
If it is not sold during the fourth
month, it will be sold at the wholesale for (($10,500-4 x
$200) + $9,700). Advertising costs $50 per month. What should the
dealer do? Make sure that your decision
rule explains what should be done at the end of each
month that the car has not been sold. Just need a formula for decision
tree approach
.Click here for more on this paper.......
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